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Mumbai, India (AHN) – India is set to gate-crash into the exclusive three-member club of nuclear triads by 2012 with its first nuclear submarine, INS Arihant, which is to be commissioned in either late 2011 or early 2012. Arihant means “destroyer of enemies” in the Hindi language.

Only three countries in the world currently have a complete nuclear weapon triad, which means the capability to fire nuclear-tipped missiles from land, air and sea. These countries are the US, Russia and China.

Indian Navy chief Adm. Nirmal Verma announced Thursday that the country’s crucial underwater leg of nuclear capability would be the third arm of the country’s nuclear defense, which is presently made up of road and rail-mobile ballistic missiles as well as fighter jets such as Mirage 2000s and Sukhoi-30 MKIs, all of which are able to deliver nuclear weapons.

Speaking ahead of the forthcoming Navy Day on Saturday, Verma said, “When INS Arihant goes to sea, it will be on a deterrent patrol. The triad will then be in place… the aim is to make it as effective as possible.”

The INS Arihant was launched in Vizag in July 2009. After it is commissioned, it will possess potent SLBM capabilities, which would complete India’s nuclear triad and bolster its position among the nuclear power club.

Speaking on this development, sources within the Navy said that Arihant remained a top secret project until its launch last year. It is first of three nuclear-powered submarines that India is currently building with help from Russia.

Clarifying India’s stand on nuclear deterrence, Verma also said, “We have a declared policy of no-first-use, but we have Arihant. We have a triad in place now, but we have to use it as effectively as possible. We have Arihant going within two years and there is progress in the project, despite some hiccups. We will be within time and commission the vessel by 2012.”

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American and British diplomats fear Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme could lead to fissile material falling into the hands of terrorists or a devastating nuclear exchange with India.

The latest cache of US embassy cables released by WikiLeaks contains warnings that Pakistan is rapidly building its nuclear stockpile despite the country’s growing instability and “pending economic catastrophe”.

Mariot Leslie, a senior British Foreign Office official, told US diplomats in September 2009: “The UK has deep concerns about the safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons ,” according to one cable classified “secret/noforn [no foreign nationals]“.

Seven months earlier, the US ambassador to Islamabad, Anne Patterson, cabled to Washington: “Our major concern is not having an Islamic militant steal an entire weapon but rather the chance someone working in government of Pakistan facilities could gradually smuggle enough material out to eventually make a weapon”.

The leak of classified US diplomatic correspondence exposes in fine detail the deep tensions between Washington and Islamabad over a broad range of issues, including counter-terrorism, Afghanistan and finance, as well as the nuclear question. US concern over Pakistan’s bomb programme was spelled out in an intelligence briefing in 2008. “Despite pending economic catastrophe, Pakistan is producing nuclear weapons at a faster rate than any other country in the world,” the secret cable said.

Leslie, director general of defence and intelligence at the Foreign Office, made clear the UK shared these anxieties when she spoke to US diplomats at a London arms control meeting in September 2009. The Pakistanis were worried the US “will drop in and take their nukes”, she said, according to a US cable to Washington. Pakistan was now prepared to accept “nuclear safety help” from British technicians, but only under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The cable said Leslie thought nuclear proliferation was the greater danger to the world, but it “ranks lower than terrorism on the public’s list of perceived threats”.

Another senior British official at the meeting, Jon Day, the Ministry of Defence’s director general for security policy, said recent intelligence indicated Pakistan was “not going in a good direction”.

The Russians shared concerns that Pakistan was “highly unstable”. Yuri Korolev, from the Russian foreign ministry, told US officials: “Islamists are not only seeking power in Pakistan but are also trying to get their hands on nuclear materials.”

Speaking in February in Washington, he called for the problem of Pakistani- nuclear sites to be addressed in ongoing missile control talks, claiming: “Over the last few years extremists have attacked vehicles that carry staff to and from these facilities. Some were killed and a number were abducted and there has been no trace seen of them.”

He said: “There are 120,000-130,000 people directly involved in Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programmes … There is no way to guarantee that all are 100% loyal and reliable.”

He claimed extremists were now recruiting more easily: “Pakistan has had to hire people to protect nuclear facilities that have especially strict religious beliefs, and recently the general educational and cultural levels in Pakistan has been falling.”

These fears are expressed in the secret state department files against a backdrop of Pakistani determination to build more nuclear warheads.

A Chinese foreign minister, He Yafei, sought to explain to the Americans why Pakistan was blocking fissile material control talks. At a London meeting in 2009, he said: “The underlying problem … is that India and Pakistan view each other as enemies. Nuclear weapons are crucial to Pakistan. Indeed, a Pakistani military leader said his army was no match for the Indian army.”

US diplomats in Islamabad were told Pakistan was working on producing smaller, tactical nuclear weapons that could be used on the battlefield against Indian troops.

“The result of this trend is the need for greater stocks of fissile material … Strategic considerations point Pakistan in the direction of a larger nuclear force that requires a greater amount of fissile material, Pakistani officials argue.”

The US conducted its own secret analysis of India’s military contingency plans, which are codenamed Cold Start. India has said that if sufficiently provoked, it would mount a rapid invasion of Pakistan.

The US said in a cable that it doubted the Indian army was capable of doing so: “It is the collective judgment of the mission that India would likely encounter very mixed results. Indian forces could have significant problems consolidating initial gains due to logistical difficulties and slow reinforcement.”

But the US ambassador to India, Tim Roemer, warned in February that for India to launch Cold Start, would be to “roll the nuclear dice”. It could trigger the world’s first use of nuclear weapons since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

“Indian leaders no doubt realise that, although Cold Start is designed to punish Pakistan in a limited manner without triggering a nuclear response, they cannot be sure whether Pakistani leaders will in fact refrain from such a response.” Pakistan ‘in tatters’

A senior US intelligence official was “unrelentingly gloomy” about Pakistan, the current safe haven for al-Qaida in the Afghanistan war, during a private briefing of Nato representatives.

Peter Lavoy, national intelligence officer for south Asia, concluded in November 2008 that nuclear-armed Pakistan’s economy was “in tatters” and the country could “completely lose control of its Pashtun territories over the next few years”, according to a leaked US cable.

More than a third of people were unemployed or underemployed, he said.

“Pakistan’s population is becoming less and less educated, the country lacks sufficient energy and clean water resources to serve its population, and there is minimal foreign investment.”

A few months later, in April 2009, Patterson was slightly less gloomy, saying Pakistan was not a “failed state”.

“We nonetheless recognise that the challenges it confronts are dire. The government is losing more and more territory every day to foreign and domestic militant groups; deteriorating law and order in turn is undermining economic recovery. The bureaucracy is settling into third-world mediocrity, as demonstrated by some corruption and a limited capacity to implement or articulate policy.”

She said: “Extremism … is no longer restricted to the border area. We are seeing young Punjabi men turn up in [the tribal areas] and Afghanistan as fighters recruited from areas of southern Punjab where poverty, illiteracy and despair create a breeding ground for extremism.”

The good news was that President Asif Ali Zardari “while far from perfect”, was “pro-American and anti-extremist; we believe he is our best ally in the government”, she said.

This January, however, the US special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, told Indian government officials in Delhi that: “the army was the key decision-maker while President Zardari was increasingly sidelined”. He said the civilian government had a limited capacity to move against groups behind the Mumbai terror attacks in 2008. Pakistan Nuclear weapons Global terrorism Taliban Afghanistan India The US embassy cables US foreign policy US national security Defence policy United States David Leigh guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds

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